Editoria - Kulimey, a political party in Somaliland, is entering one of its most turbulent periods. At the centre of the storm stands Muse Bihi Abdi, the former president, whose once unshakable grip on the Kulmiye Party has fractured into open conflict with Mohamed Kahin Ahmed, his longtime ally and the party's current chairman. What appears on the surface to be a personal rift is, in fact, a deeper reflection of the structural weaknesses embedded within Somaliland's political party system.

A stunning fall from power

Kulmiye’s defeat in the November 2024 presidential and party elections was not just a loss; it was a collapse. The party’s presidential contender, the incumbent Muse Bihi, was decisively beaten, securing barely a third of the total vote. Even more humiliating, Kulmiye finished third in the political parties’ election, placing it at the bottom of Somaliland’s three-party structure and stripping it of political momentum.

In stable democracies, such a crushing defeat would naturally trigger a leadership transition. Instead, Kulmiye finds itself confronted with a paradox: the leadership that oversaw the loss remains firmly in place, clinging to influence even as the party’s base fractures beneath them.

A postponed congress and a brewing storm

Party chairman Mohamed Kahin Ahmed has sought to delay Kulmiye’s internal Congress, the body responsible for electing party leadership. His move provoked immediate backlash, not only from some members of the party but also from the Parties Registration Commission (PRC), the regulatory authority tasked with ensuring compliance with political party laws. However, the majority of the leadership supported Kahin’s move.

Surprisingly, former president Bihi, once Kahin’s closest ally, has sided with the PRC. His motivation is clear: Bihi believes he still commands a majority within the party ranks and wants the Congress held immediately, giving him the opportunity to oust Kahin and reshape the leadership in his favour.

What is unfolding is not a clash of principles but a struggle for survival and dominance.

The collapse of the "Rainbow Alliance”

At the heart of the party’s instability is the disintegration of the once-powerful political coalition known as the Jeegaan (rainbow), an alliance primarily between the Habarjeclo and Habar Awal sub-clans.

This coalition propelled Kulmiye to major victories in 2010 and 2017, securing the presidencies of Silanyo and Bihi. But Bihi’s seven-year term eroded trust, and the devastating conflict in Las Anod shattered the remaining cohesion. Habarjeclo’s withdrawal of support left Kulmiye internally exposed and electorally vulnerable, an opportunity that Waddani’s Abdirahman Irro capitalised on masterfully.

Two divergent paths: rebuild or realign

The power struggle now revolves around two competing visions for Kulmiye’s future.

Kahin and Abdiasis Samale, his deputy, believe the Jeegaan alliance can be revived. To them, restoring the old coalition is their best hope of gaining power.

Bihi, on the other hand, seeks to pivot westward. His strategy envisions a new alliance centred on Habar Awal, enhanced by support from Awdal’s Gadabuursi and the Arab clan.

Under this arrangement, Habar Awal would control the Kulmiye chairmanship, Gadabuursi would secure the presidential candidacy, and Arab would claim the vice presidency.

This reconfiguration is designed not only to resurrect Kulmiye but also to deliver Bihi a political comeback and a symbolic victory over President Irro.

Bihi’s bid faces internal resistance.

Even within Habar Awal, Bihi’s plan is far from secure. He has backed Mohamed Hersi Farah, a political newcomer and former director of the Academy of Peace and Development, to take over the party chairmanship. But Farah faces fierce resistance from his own clan peers inside the party.

Key figures, including Abdiasis Mohamed Samaale, Kulmiye’s deputy chairman, and Abdirahman Soltelko, former mayor of Hargeisa, both Habar Awal, have instead thrown their weight behind Kahin and supported the postponement of the Congress.

But their support for Kahin is not ideological. It is strategic. At 78, Kahin poses little long-term challenge to their ambitions. Supporting him, for now, is a calculated investment in their future ascent within the party.

And they are not alone. Many of Bihi’s former allies have similarly concluded that Kahin, despite his age and contentious decisions, is a safer and more predictable choice than any political architecture Bihi is attempting to build.

What this political unravelling means for Somaliland politics

Kulmiye’s turmoil has implications far beyond party politics. It may reshape the broader political landscape.

Waddani, currently in power, is closely monitoring the fractures. A chaotic Kulmiye increases the likelihood of maintaining political dominance. Waddani’s interest is Kahin in leadership. Bihi’s plan is a real threat to Waddani.

Kaah, now Somaliland’s second-largest party, sees an opportunity to expand its influence by aligning with the faction most likely to lose Kulmiye’s internal war. Kaah’s chairman, Mohamoud Haashi Abdi, also from Habar Jeclo, is a strong believer in reinstating the Jeegaan alliance in his favour.

Regional and clan alliances, the backbone of Somaliland’s electoral politics, are being renegotiated in real time.

The future of Kulmiye now hangs in the balance. The party is not simply choosing between two leaders, but between two fundamentally different visions of its political identity.

A democracy tested from within

While Somaliland often prides itself on democratic practice, the current crisis reveals the fragility of its political parties. Party leadership transitions remain personality-driven, alliances are built on clan calculations rather than policy platforms, and internal democracy is repeatedly subordinated to individual ambition.

The showdown between Muse Bihi and Mohamed Kahin is no exception. It is a symptom of a political system where rules can be bent, Congress postponed, and alliances reshaped at the whim of powerful men.